San Diego Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez is going to be linked to numerous trade rumors during the upcoming season. If I were to bet on it, I would say that, until the situation is resolved, there’ll be more posts written at MLB Trade Rumors about Gonzalez than any other player. From a pure baseball standpoint, the Padres would be wise to move the left-handed slugger before the July 31 trade deadline, with his value likely to be at its peak. The speculation will be similar to what transpired with Toronto Blue Jays’ ace Roy Halladay last year. Since Gonzalez is still under control for another season, like Halladay before him, any interested suitor would be making a move for one-and-half seasons of his services instead of depleting the farm for a three-month rental. The Blue Jays failed to see that logic, completely mismanaging the Halladay trade talks last summer, so it’ll be interesting to see if another team falls for that mistake.

Gonzalez truly is a special talent and in the middle of a likely peak. He put together an excellent 2009 campaign, batting .277/.407/.551 with 40 homers and 99 RBIs while playing half his games at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. While his walk rate and career-high on-base percentage was largely the function of his being pitched around so frequently—pitching against that offense, why not?—it was easily the best performance of his career. He also provided fine defense at first base, producing 3.8 runs above average according to FanGraphs’ Ultimate Zone Rating. When factoring in batting, fielding and positional considerations, he was worth 6.4 Wins Above Replacement, trailing only Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder among major league first basemen. Thus, even as he gets a bump in salary, he’s well worth his contract and represents a bargain for any club.

The question about whether or not Gonzalez will be moved, though, is not if, but when and to whom. San Diego has no chance at contention over the remaining two years on his contract. As well, spending the money that it would take to lock up Gonzalez long term would be a misallocation of resources for a team like the Padres. Indeed, doing so would require them to tie up a significant percentage of the payroll into a single player—one who doesn’t play a premium position. Building a team of 24 other quality major league players around Gonzalez would then become a challenge, requiring an influx of cheap talent from the San Diego farm system to fill the remaining holes at an efficient price.

Since Gonzalez is a local product, any move would be a public relations hit for a franchise that should have a difficult time selling tickets in the near term. The initial backlash, though, should have little bearing on any decision. A trade likely will, and needs to, happen.

Other first basemen

Rather than getting into more detail on Gonzalez (ATM writer Paddy McMahon did so last week), though, I wanted to bring up a few other high-profile first baseman who could also be realistic trade candidates for 2010. While Gonzalez has received the most attention, teams looking for first base/lineup help could really benefit from a high supply of premium offensive talent.

Lance Berkman

One player that I wanted to focus on—his status was what inspired me to do this series—is Houston Astros first baseman Lance Berkman. There has been practically nothing written about a potential Berkman move for a variety of reasons. One, Astros owner Drayton McLane has the patience of a child. As myopic of a thinker as there is in professional baseball, McLane has ignored all calls to tear down the fort and rebuild in the aftermath of the Killer B era. Instead, he has consistently clung to the false notion that his club is always within grasp of contention, famously bringing Craig Biggio back for a reunion tour among many other poor short-term moves. Yet again this offseason, despite McLane openly admitting that the franchise needs to devote more attention and money to developing young talent, Houston general manager Ed Wade made a handful of moves that suggests the club is still trying to win now.

If that assessment is true, McLane would likely never sign off on dealing Berkman or staff ace Roy Oswalt even if doing so was in the best long-term interest of the organization; with that kind of premium talent, he seems to think, the club always has a shot even if the rest of the 25-man roster is littered with holes. Yet, depending on the potential offer of course, moving one of the pair, or both, could really be beneficial. Since the Astros are one of the few teams to abide by the commissioner’s misguided slotting rules, they don’t have any real high-impact talent in a weak farm system. Cashing in on veterans for cheap assets, while likely to be painful for McLane (who is close friends with each player), could help alleviate that issue as the team works on doing a better job in future drafts.

Should the Astros falter early, Berkman could end up on the trading block as painful as it might be for ownership to swallow. The left-handed-hitting slugger has a $15-million option for 2011. While he’s likely to be worth that money, that Houston would pick up the option isn’t a foregone conclusion. Nor should it be. If management finally does what is needed and commits to a youth movement, the option should be bought out. How Berkman performs over the course of the year will impact the thought process, obviously, but his contract status will be a prominent issue facing Wade and co.

As far as the Astros are concerned, it wouldn’t make sense to hold onto Berkman come July if they are out of contention and plan to buy him out for $2-million. Despite his comments about potentially retiring if the option isn’t picked up, I wouldn’t put too much stock into the chances of that happening. So, despite his age, there’ll likely be a demand for his services.

Granted, Berkman won’t fetch as much as Gonzalez and the potential supply of other quality bats available via trade could suppress any return. There aren’t many teams that could take on his contract, either, but since he’ll likely come cheaper in terms of prospects than some of the other options, he could be a fallback option for a larger-market club looking for mid-season help.

Berkman, who boasts a career line of .299/.412/.555, has quietly been one of the majors’ elite hitters and overall players over the past decade. Since 2002, he has produced a staggering 43.2 WAR, proving to be a tremendous bargain for the Astros. His best season of all came in 2008, when he rode a .364 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) to bat .312/.420/.567 with 29 homers and a 159 OPS+. He also played fine defense at first base, posting a 7.4 UZR and 6.7 UZR/150. Until a late-season slump, he was even a legitimate threat to Albert Pujols for the National League Most Valuable Player. Overall, he registered a career-best 6.9 WAR, making him the majors’ sixth-most valuable player according to the stat.

As expected, Berkman failed to sustain that level of output in ’09. He got off to a poor start, hitting just .162/.326/.392 with only seven extra-base hits and a .718 OPS in April. He bounced back the rest of the way, crushing the ball in mid-summer (1.061 and 1.054 OPS during June and July) to finish with a still-excellent line of .274/.399/.509 and 25 homers and 139 OPS+. His strikeout rate increased, but he was still worth 27.7 runs above average; though, that was down from an incredible 51.4 in ’08. In addition to the offensive regression, the advanced fielding metrics weren’t as kind to his defense. His UZR fell to -4.7, hurting his overall value; he fell below the 4.0-win mark, at 3.2, for just the second time since ’02.

While the sample size could be playing a factor, defense could become an issue as Berkman ages. His UZR totals have varied wildly the past three seasons, with the plus UZR ’08 total mixed in between to well below-average ones over the past three seasons. Thus, given that he has old-man skills and is entering his age-34 season, his fielding could be a concern going forward. For that reason, he could be most attractive to an American League team that can also use him at designated hitter; indeed, even if he remains an Astro beyond 2010, a move to the other league might be in his best interest upon hitting free agency.

If Berkman stays healthy and Houston falls out of the race, a change could be made. Again, McLane has a track record of waiting too long to punt on any given season, always hoping for a miraculous late-season run to the postseason. Plus, given his loyalty to key Astros fixtures such as Biggio and Jeff Bagwell, odds are Berkman’s option will be picked up regardless of where the club falls on the success spectrum.

Prince Fielder

Like Gonzalez, there has been a lot of talk this winter about what the future holds for Milwaukee Brewers slugging first baseman Prince Fielder. Fielder is represented by agent Scott Boras, who has taken nearly every star client of his to free agency in an attempt to get full market value. While Boras and Brewers management had a “secret” meeting to discuss a long-term extension this week, I have a difficult time seeing the team being able to work something out that makes sense for the health of the franchise. Club general manager Doug Melvin recently cited the Texas Rangers’ trade of Juan Gonzalez as an example of the risks that come with dealing a marquee player. From where I’m standing, the analogy fell flat and was an entirely different scenario than what Milwaukee is facing with Fielder.

It goes without saying: Fielder is one of the majors’ most dangerous hitters. Plus, the 25-year-old is coming off the best season of his career and entering his likely peak. He put up monster numbers a season ago, hitting .299/.412/.602 with a career-high 168 OPS+. He continued to hit for incredible power, blasting 46 home runs and impressively topping the .300 Isolated Power mark, at .303, for the second time in three seasons. He also led the circuit with 141 RBIs and set a personal best by drawing 110 walks.

For the first time ever, Fielder also graded out above-average on defense; he put up a 0.6 UZR and 0.6 UZR/150. The fielding improvement combined with the tremendous offensive output translated to 6.8 WAR, also a personal best.

There aren’t many hitters like Fielder around, so losing that bat would be a blow, especially in the short term. The Brewers, however, just aren’t the type of franchise that can afford to be weighed down with the salary of a single player, especially someone who contributes little on the other side of the ball.

Many have also brought up another concern with Fielder: his weight. Despite becoming a vegan, he is listed a 5-foot-11, 268 pounds. Even if he maintains a commitment to fitness and nutrition, odds are he’ll get bigger as he ages, decreasing the chances that he can maintain his excellence well into his 30s. Plus, the defense is a real concern. Prior to ’09, here are his UZR totals.

2006: -10.5
2007: -8.5
2008: -8.5
2009: 0.6

Obviously, counting on the ’09 mark there is a trap. Thus, by the time that Fielder reaches the middle of his next (and, with Boras, sure to be massive) contract, we could be looking at a should-be DH who needs to be playing for an A.L. team.

Now, I don’t mean to sell Fielder’s offensive abilities short. Even with terrible defense, he would be a tremendous asset because of the bat. However, with Milwaukee’s budget and the need to fill the roster in other areas—including potentially signing Yovanni Gollardo—it should look long and hard to explore the trade market if Boras’ demands are unreasonable. Either way, expect Fielder to be linked to numerous other clubs via trade should that occur. If I were Melvin, I’d make a concerted effort to haul in a bounty of prospects, cheap assets who can help the team net more wins in the long run while maintaining the ability to spend in other areas.

Brewers infielder Mat Gamel, 24, could slide across the diamond to play first base. Gamel, who hit .302/.374/.488 over parts of five minor league seasons, has a decent upside offensively, but his defense at the hot corner leaves a ton to be desired. He profiles as a below-average defender there, in part due to his constant throwing problems. The defense, though, should translate better at first base, where his arm won’t be as much of an issue. As a hitter, he’s a safe bet to post a healthy OBP with decent, though nothing like Fielder, power. Best of all, he’s still cheap and currently blocked at the major league level because of his poor fielding.

Note: In part two, I'll discuss Ryan Howard and Carlos Pena before concluding the series. It was initially expected to be one piece but just ran really long. Part two is finished and will run in the morning.

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